Monthly Outlook

Quite warm at first, followed by cooler conditions, with temperatures perhaps dropping near to the seasonal average by early next week.

A mostly drier and settled trend is expected later in the forecast period, along with temperatures at least slightly above average.

Trending cooler

Around mid-week the predominating high pressure will be retreating to the east of the UK allowing a deepening low pressure system with its fronts to affect parts of the UK from the north-west and west. The latter will bring stronger winds and spells of heavy rain or showers will become a little more widespread on Thursday. Even thunderstorms with gusty winds and some hail are possible in some western and southern areas particularly in the afternoon and evening.

After a cold front passage temperatures are expected to drop a little but remain still above average, especially further south in the UK.

Towards the end of this week high pressure could set in from the west again, leading to largely dry conditions. However, given the establishing northerly flow, temperatures could drop further over the weekend.

In addition weak low pressure disturbances may move southwards mainly over the eastern areas of the UK, bringing scattered showers and brisk winds. Conditions may calm down from the west on Sunday.

Temperatures could fall slightly

The reliability of weather forecasts for the first full week of May has slightly improved recently. High pressure influence remains the most probable outcome for the time being, consistent with slightly rising temperatures and less precipitation during much of next week. Scotland in particular though, may experience slightly wetter and windier conditions at times.

Certain global weather forecast models continue to suggest a cooler or even colder northerly flow prevailing or returning in the course of next week. In this case temperatures could temporarily fall slightly below average, accompanied by some showers, which could become wintry on the highest ground of Scotland.

Uncertainty remains as the week progresses, but conditions could remain changeable according to these models and temperatures could rise slightly above average later in the week.

Calmer and drier

As we head towards the second half of May, the long-term weather forecast models still show some different trends, making it hard to discern which weather pattern is more likely.

However, a continuation of high pressure predominated conditions seems a little more likely and settled, calmer conditions are expected to continue in the weeks that follow.

Temperatures could remain at least slightly above average levels for this time of the year, including some smaller ups and downs. As far as precipitation is concerned, the likelihood of scattered showers, some of them thundery, will increase during this period.

Friday's update will give us a hint about the start of meteorological summer at the beginning of June. However, that's a long way off, and even for next week there is quite a bit of uncertainty.